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Lille vs Paris SG

Fri 28 Aug 2026, 18:45 UTC · Round 2 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Lille win: 27.2%

Draw: 25.3%

Paris SG win: 47.5%

Predicted: Paris SG

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 56.9%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 54.1%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.34

More corners: Paris SG (43.7% home / 56.3% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Paris SG

Yes

Probability Paris SG wins or draws: 69.8%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Paris SG Clearest lean of the available outcomes (48% vs next-best 27%). (48.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (57.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Paris SG win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (70.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.